01 · B.C. transition
B.C.’s Conservatives assemble a transition team after their first victory since 1928, as Eby steps down as NDP leader
Updated preliminary counts from British Columbia’s snap election have firmed into a clear Conservative majority, giving the province its first Conservative government since 1928 on a preliminary turnout of about 48%, also the lowest since 1928. Lorne Doerkson’s Conservatives are leading or elected in about 64 of the legislature’s 93 ridings (63 in some tallies) on roughly 48% of the popular vote, ahead of David Eby’s New Democrats at 27 to 28 ridings on about 37% and the Greens with 2 ridings on about 11%. CTV News was first to declare the majority on election night, The Canadian Press called it about an hour after polls closed, and CBC News projected the Conservative majority as the count settled. With the tally firmed, attention has turned to how Doerkson — who has served as interim leader since September 20 and must still win a two-thirds vote of party members to keep the job permanently — will govern. He named Kim Henderson, a former deputy minister and head of the public service under premiers Christy Clark and Gordon Campbell who is on unpaid leave from Trans Mountain Corp., to chair his transition team, promising the incoming government “will be ready on day one.” Doerkson has not ruled out recalling the legislature this fall and wants legislation separating provincial and municipal election campaigns by at least 60 to 90 days. The Globe and Mail’s Morning Update flags a larger coming clash over his plan to repeal B.C.’s Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples Act (DRIPA). On the outgoing side, CTV News reports that Eby has resigned as NDP leader, though he remains premier until Doerkson’s cabinet is sworn in, for which no date had been set as of Sunday. Six former NDP cabinet ministers were projected to lose their seats, CBC News reports, including Jagrup Brar in Surrey-Fleetwood and Jessie Sunner in Surrey-Newton. Prime Minister Mark Carney congratulated Doerkson and said he wants to work with him on housing, according to The Canadian Press. Elections BC’s final count runs November 6–10, with writs returned on November 18 — a process that could still move close ridings, though not the majority.
CBC News · CTV News · The Canadian Press · The Globe and Mail
02 · Canada–U.S. trade
Trump predicts a Canada trade deal “soon” in Port Huron, but a U.S. official tells Bloomberg Ottawa hasn’t offered enough
At a Sunday rally in Port Huron, Michigan, President Donald Trump predicted that Washington’s trade dispute with Canada would be resolved “soon,” repeating his contention that Canada has been “taking advantage” of the United States and has made roughly $90 billion a year off it. “We will resolve this soon. They are now willing to make any concessions,” Trump told the crowd. Earlier the same day, National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett said negotiations had “picked up” and were “gathering steam,” adding that Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick had been in contact with Canadian counterparts all week. Bloomberg reported a sharper counterweight: a U.S. official familiar with the sensitive discussions said Washington still does not believe Canada has offered enough and that the outlook for an agreement remains uncertain. Across coverage of the talks, August’s collapsed near-deal remains the reason no outlet treats claims that an agreement is “close” as meaning one is done. Meanwhile, the Section 338 tariff-list reshuffle Trump signed Friday takes effect October 30, taking plywood sheets, some paper products, certain machinery and refrigeration equipment, packing crates and boxes, and fresh and dried seaweed off the 50% list while putting other lines on. That first-ever invocation of Section 338 is already in court: the Liberty Justice Center, representing food importer Gellert Global Group, has sued in the Court of International Trade to strike the duties and refund what importers have paid. In Port Huron, rapper Nicki Minaj flew in on Air Force One and joined Trump on stage, endorsing him alongside Michigan Republicans Mike Rogers and John James. USA Today noted that Trump’s compliment about her appearance became the rally’s most-carried clip, during a weekend that also saw Barack Obama rally on Saturday with El-Sayed in Michigan’s tight Senate race against Rogers.
Bloomberg · USA Today · cross-outlet reporting
03 · Central banks
Bank of Canada and the Fed head toward Wednesday rate decisions as tariff-hit growth meets sticky inflation
Wednesday, October 28 brings monetary policy decisions in Ottawa and Washington within hours of each other. For the Bank of Canada, a Reuters poll published October 23 — carried as the decision-week preview of record — found 19 of 34 economists (56%) expecting the central bank to raise its overnight rate by 25 basis points to 2.50% on Wednesday, its first move in a year, and to hike once more by the end of March. September inflation printed at 3.1%, just above the bank’s 1–3% target band, and the bank’s business outlook survey showed sharply rising inflation expectations; futures moved from pricing a 30% chance of an October hike to roughly three-in-four after weekend remarks by Governor Tiff Macklem were read as a hint. Sitting underneath that expected tightening is the Parliamentary Budget Officer’s new outlook, which cuts Canada’s 2026 growth forecast to 0.9%, projects federal deficits above $63 billion through 2030-31, blames the new round of U.S. tariffs and Canadian countermeasures, and warns that mortgage renewals at higher rates will squeeze consumption. In Washington, the Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold its benchmark rate at 3.75–4.00% on Wednesday, with futures pricing roughly an 88–90% chance of a hold and Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference serving as the main event. The week’s major U.S. data arrives after both central banks have acted: Thursday brings the advance estimate of third-quarter U.S. GDP, forecast around 3%, alongside September’s PCE inflation report, while Friday brings the Employment Cost Index. Overseas, the European Central Bank decides Thursday and the Bank of Japan on Friday, while corporate earnings feature Microsoft and Alphabet on Wednesday and Amazon on Thursday. Markets enter the week after mixed Friday weekly closes in New York, where the S&P 500 finished down 0.47% on the week, the Nasdaq fell 0.71%, the Dow rose 0.41%, and the Russell 2000 gained 2.00%. Oil remained elevated, with Brent crude trading near $110 on Monday after reaching a near-$117 high on Friday — its highest since 2022 — on the U.S.–Iran conflict and Houthi attacks on Saudi targets, while gold sat near $4,008. In Toronto, on Friday, October 23, the S&P/TSX Composite fell 0.52% (down 185.27 points) to close at 35,788.18, with BMO down 0.8%, CIBC down 0.9%, Celestica off 3.2% after the prior session’s 12% plunge, and Agnico Eagle and Barrick each down 1.3%, while Canadian bond yields moved higher with markets pricing a Bank of Canada hike. Desk data note — the TSX reference universe this desk tracks: 1,643 symbols and 4,312,052 certified rows, certified per-symbol only, as of October 9, 2026 (ISA knowledge base — ISA D1 certification and public-API ruling, 2026-10-25; raw OHLCV not ruled public).
Reuters · Parliamentary Budget Officer · Trading Economics
04 · First Nations meeting
Carney meets First Nations leaders in Ottawa in a test of major-project fast-tracking and budget commitments
Prime Minister Mark Carney and the provincial premiers meet First Nations leaders in Ottawa today in a first-of-its-kind First Ministers’ meeting, following a day of ceremony on Sunday reported by The Canadian Press. Assembly of First Nations National Chief Cindy Woodhouse Nepinak called the gathering a historic occasion, saying First Nations are partners in Confederation and must be respected as governments seek to ramp up resource development. The Globe and Mail frames today’s talks as “a key test of Ottawa’s commitment.” According to The Canadian Press, First Nations leaders are using the meeting to push for new funding commitments ahead of the November 5 federal budget and to raise concerns about Ottawa’s fast-track major-projects office, which was created by 2025 legislation to approve projects within one year — efforts that some chiefs say threaten their rights. Yet the table is conspicuously incomplete: Quebec Premier Paul St-Pierre Plamondon and Alberta Premier Danielle Smith both said they would be absent, and only a handful of leaders attended Sunday’s opening ceremony. Outside the official talks, a grassroots collective invoking the 2012 Idle No More movement met on Sunday to strategize a protest. With Indigenous support crucial to many of Carney’s infrastructure ambitions, the Globe notes, the outcome of today’s session could shape relations well beyond today.
The Canadian Press · The Globe and Mail
05 · Brazil
Lula wins a fourth presidential term in Brazil’s runoff as Flávio Bolsonaro refuses to concede
Brazil’s electoral court (TSE) declared President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva the winner of Sunday’s presidential runoff with the count complete, giving Lula 64,256,232 votes, or 51.79% of valid ballots, against Senator Flávio Bolsonaro’s 59,826,041 votes, or 48.21% (reported by the Associated Press as 51.8% to 48.2%). The margin of about 4.43 million votes is more than twice the losing margin of Bolsonaro’s father in 2022. At 80, Lula becomes the first candidate since Brazil’s two-round system began in 1989 to win a runoff after finishing second in the first round — where Bolsonaro took 47.03% to Lula’s 45.16% on October 4 — and will begin a fourth, nonconsecutive term in January 2027. Bolsonaro, 45, said he will not recognize the result and will seek its annulment, attacking Supreme Court Justice Cristiano Zanin’s ruling that extended voting by two hours. Bolsonaro’s own campaign had also requested that extension, citing rain, flooding, and power outages in the south, and analysts rate an annulment as improbable. Financial markets that had bet on a Bolsonaro victory moved hard on the outcome: a Tokyo-listed ETF tracking the Bovespa dived nearly 15% in Asia trade — though because it is a thinly traded line, the print overstates the depth of the move — while the Brazilian real was set to fall sharply and U.S.-listed Brazilian stocks were tumbling in Monday’s pre-market reads.
Associated Press · Brazil TSE · Reuters
06 · Serbia
Serbia’s Vučić concedes defeat after student-backed opposition list sweeps snap parliamentary vote
Serbia’s longtime leader Aleksandar Vučić conceded defeat late Sunday after a student-backed opposition list won the country’s snap parliamentary election, capping two years of peaceful anti-government protests that began after 16 people died in the collapse of a train-station canopy in Novi Sad. With almost 99% of votes counted, the State Election Commission had the students’ candidates at 52.7% against 39.2% for Vučić’s Serbian Progressive Party-led alliance, translating into 139 seats in the 250-seat parliament to the SNS alliance’s 97, with the remainder going to minority parties. Vučić, who has dominated Serbian politics as prime minister or president since 2014, initially gave his own sample-based estimate of 135 to 140 student seats against about 105 for his side before the commission’s count settled. Tens of thousands of people celebrated in Belgrade and other cities overnight. Reuters called the outcome a profound political shift reminiscent of Viktor Orbán’s April defeat in Hungary, while The New York Times quoted an opposition candidate saying that “no force can forever overpower a people who have decided to take their destiny into their own hands,” and former Montenegrin diplomat Ratko Knežević called it a “tectonic shift in the political order established in 1987.” Still, the Times notes an important caveat — on Kosovo, Russia, and the European Union, the student list’s positions differ little from Vučić’s — and how the new majority will govern remains, as Reuters put it, still largely unknown.
Reuters · The New York Times · Associated Press
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