01 · Toronto election
Olivia Chow wins Toronto by a landslide the polls did not see — and Ontario's municipal map turns over
Toronto re-elected Mayor Olivia Chow to her first full term on Monday, and it was not close. With all 1,431 polls reporting in the City of Toronto's unofficial results, Chow took 54.2% (532,201 votes) to city councillor Brad Bradford's 41.1% (404,013) — a 13-point margin, against a final-poll average of Chow +2.6. Turnout rose to 45.84%, up 7.34 points. CBC News, the Toronto Star and The Globe and Mail all projected Chow's win on election night; CP24/CTV projected it as ballots were still being counted, and Bradford conceded. The Canadian Press noted her re-election pitch rested on her record — the expressway-cost upload to the province, tighter rules for bad-faith evictions and reduced 911 wait times — and that she will now be expected to deliver on capping transit fares at 10 rides a week and building more affordable rental housing. Seven new councillors were elected in Toronto. Across Ontario: Ottawa re-elected Mark Sutcliffe (44.6% to Jeff Leiper's 33.9%); Mississauga chose change, electing Ward 2 councillor Alvin Tedjo over both incumbent Carolyn Parrish and former mayor Bonnie Crombie; Brampton re-elected Patrick Brown (54.9%); and Hamilton elected Keanin Loomis (41.8%), with incumbent Andrea Horwath finishing third at 14.5%.
CBC News · Toronto Star · The Globe and Mail · The Canadian Press · CTV News
02 · Canada–U.S. trade
U.S. and Canada work on a deal to ease steel and auto tariffs — but CBC's sources say no deal before the midterms
Reuters reported exclusively on Monday that the United States and Canada are working on a deal to ease U.S. tariffs on Canadian steel and autos, citing two U.S. and four Canadian sources, as the two governments try to repair relations that soured after trade talks broke down in August. The talks focus on Section 232 tariffs — up to 50% on Canadian steel and 25% on autos — with Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, whose department administers Section 232, in regular contact with Dominic LeBlanc, Canada's minister for Canada-U.S. trade. One Canadian source said a steel-and-auto deal was possible before the November 3 midterms; U.S. sources said the Trump administration wanted Canada to make further concessions. CBC News, citing three unnamed sources, reported the other way on timing: Canada and the U.S. are not expected to reach a trade deal before next week's midterms, and CBC's The National framed Monday as talks intensifying while Ottawa cautions against U.S. efforts to "spin" the narrative ahead of the vote. Prime Minister Mark Carney acknowledged increased diplomatic activity but said Canada had not changed its negotiating position. Reuters' copy also put President Trump's approval at 32% and noted tariffs on Canada have become a political liability for Republicans in border states.
Reuters · CBC News
03 · Central banks
Decision day tomorrow on both sides of the border: Bank of Canada expected to hike, the Fed expected to hold
Wednesday brings near-simultaneous rate decisions in Ottawa and Washington. A Reuters poll (published Oct. 23; 19 of 34 economists, 56%) expects the Bank of Canada to raise its overnight rate 25 basis points to 2.50% on Oct. 28 — its first move in a year — and once more by end-March, after September inflation printed 3.1%, just above the 1–3% target band, and the bank's business outlook survey showed sharply rising inflation expectations; futures moved from pricing a 30% chance of an October hike to roughly three-in-four after Governor Tiff Macklem's weekend remarks. In Washington, Reuters reported Monday that Federal Reserve policymakers have telegraphed they will not raise U.S. borrowing costs again this week, holding the federal funds target at 3.75%–4.00%, with futures pricing about a 90% chance of a hold — but investors believe the pause will not last long, with inflation and growth data due Thursday expected to show prices picking up and the economy accelerating, and a December hike firmly in debate. Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference follows the 2 p.m. ET decision.
Reuters
04 · Anthropic IPO
Anthropic files for a blockbuster IPO — and markets take it as a vote of confidence in the AI boom
Anthropic filed for its initial public offering on Monday, moving a step closer to becoming the first company focused primarily on the most advanced AI models to go public. The filing, led by Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley among 22 banks, plans a Nasdaq listing under the symbol ANT; filing coverage put first-half 2026 revenue at US$16.3 billion against a steep net loss, with about a quarter of revenue coming from just five customers, spending plans topping half a trillion dollars, and a targeted valuation around $1.5 trillion. The prospectus also flagged that its technology could "pose catastrophic or existential risks to humanity" if misused or allowed to operate with high autonomy. Markets rallied on the filing Monday rather than balking at the new supply: the Nasdaq rose 0.83% to 26,169.38, the S&P 500 gained 0.70% to 7,676.85 and the Dow added 0.28% to 52,361.58, with chip stocks up 2.8% in overnight trade. Meta Platforms' plan to raise up to $95 billion in its largest-ever equity fundraising added to the AI supply wave, and more than a third of S&P 500 companies — including Alphabet, Microsoft and Amazon — report earnings this week. Bloomberg reported that Commonwealth Bank of Australia, an Anthropic Series E investor, could see a paper profit of more than A$1 billion from the listing.
Cross-outlet / Anthropic filing · Bloomberg
05 · Israel election
Israel votes today in its first election since October 7, 2023 — with no bloc near a majority
Israelis vote Tuesday in a parliamentary election that puts Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's hold on power at stake, the country's first general election since the Hamas attack of October 7, 2023. Reuters' explainer sets out the night: voting runs 7 a.m. to 10 p.m. Israel time, when television exit polls give the first indications; the final tally is expected by October 30 and official results are published November 4, after which President Isaac Herzog consults party leaders and gives a nominee up to 42 days to form a government. Final opinion polls put Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party ahead of Netanyahu's Likud (roughly 22–23 seats to 19–21), but neither Netanyahu's coalition (projected around 50 seats) nor the main opposition bloc (52–56) is near the 61 seats needed for a majority in the 120-seat Knesset, with Arab-led parties projected at another 14–16 seats. What happens in the Iran conflict after Israel's vote — and after next Tuesday's U.S. midterms — is now a central market and diplomatic question.
Reuters · Associated Press
06 · U.S. midterms
One week to the U.S. midterms: Trump puts himself at the centre, and the cost of living is the terrain
With the November 3 midterms a week away, President Trump has launched an intensive nationwide campaign of near-daily rallies, urging supporters to "pretend I'm on the ballot, just one more time" — a strategy AFP reported analysts warn could backfire given his record-low approval. A Washington Post analysis cited in this morning's coverage found inflation has outpaced wage gains for six consecutive months and that six in ten battleground families cannot afford basic living costs, with Republicans defending roughly three-quarters of the 46 frontline districts deemed critical to congressional control. The New York Times' early-voting explainer cautioned that millions of early votes in Texas, Kansas, Georgia and North Carolina tell us less than many think. Control of all 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats is at stake, along with governorships in 36 states. In Alaska, Democratic Senate candidate Mary Peltola asked a federal judge to dismiss the Trump administration's lawsuit over certification — a race that could determine control of the Senate.
AFP · The Washington Post · The New York Times
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