Geopolitical & Policy Risk — The Hold That Tightened, and Frankfurt Decides Next (Oct 29, 2026) | Read Achilles

Geopolitical & Policy Risk · Thursday, October 29, 2026

Play with this page: every chart carries hover readouts and a table view; compare views on 2 charts · range windows on 1 · 3 your-arithmetic sliders — dial in your own figure against the desk's printed lines. Everything you can reach shows only the edition’s own figures — the sliders show yours, labelled as yours.

Israel — the count so far, in seats

Count at roughly 90% — nobody at 61; 61 of 120 needed to govern.

Compare note: in the Against the line view, bars that fall short of 61 — a governing majority are dimmed; every figure is unchanged.

YOUR ARITHMETIC — the count so far is the desk's, as printed. Dial in YOUR OWN seat count for a bloc and stand it against the printed majority line; the count you choose is your hypothetical, not the desk's.

Table view — the same figures as text

Series	As printed
Netanyahu bloc	53
Opposition	48
Arab-led parties	19

Source: Geopolitical & Policy Risk edition, Oct 29 — the 60-Second Regime Matrix and The Slow Fronts section as printed.

Hormuz — transits

IMF PortWatch counts, as printed. Day 242 of the closure — Iran closed the strait on February 28, 2026 (Straits.live tracker; its count for October 28 was day 241, desk capture of October 28).

Table view — the same figures as text

Series	As printed
Early October average (October 1–18)	~3.6 ships/day
Normal	~85 ships/day
October 25 count	2

Source: Geopolitical & Policy Risk edition, Oct 29 — the Hormuz attention card in What Needs Your Attention Today as printed.

Central-bank rates and inflation readings

The Fed held, Canada raised, and Frankfurt is expected to hold — settings and readings as printed.

YOUR ARITHMETIC — the settings and readings above are the desk's, as printed. Dial in YOUR OWN rate or inflation figure and see where it would stand among them; the figure you choose is your hypothetical, not the desk's call.

Table view — the same figures as text

Series	As printed
Federal Reserve target range — held	3.75%–4.00%
Bank of Canada — raised to	2.50%
European Central Bank — hold expected at	2.50%
U.S. inflation, year to September	3.7%
Euro-area inflation in September	3.8%
Canada inflation — forecast to reach by the end of this year	about 3.5%
Canada inflation — forecast averaging in 2027	3.1%

Source: Geopolitical & Policy Risk edition, Oct 29 — the What Needs Your Attention Today attention cards and Yesterday’s Verdicts section as printed.

U.S. yields — the curve

The 10-year borrowing rate that prices mortgages worldwide closed at 5.05% — as printed.

YOUR ARITHMETIC — the curve above is the desk's, printed points only. Dial in YOUR OWN yield and see where it would stand along the curve; the figure you choose is your hypothetical, not the desk's call.

Table view — the same figures as text

Series	As printed
2-year	4.67%
10-year	5.05%
30-year	5.37%

Source: Geopolitical & Policy Risk edition, Oct 29 — Yesterday’s Verdicts section as printed.

Wednesday — oil rose, stocks rose

Brent settled at $115.32 and WTI settled at $102.78 — Wednesday settlements. Gold settled at $4,073.72, down less than a dollar.

Table view — the same figures as text

Series	As printed
S&P 500	+0.28%
Nasdaq	0.27%
Dow	0.19%
Brent crude	up 1%
WTI crude	up 3%

Source: Geopolitical & Policy Risk edition, Oct 29 — the attention cards and Yesterday’s Verdicts section, Wednesday prints.

The Fed vote — the split

As printed, the vote was 10–2 — 2 of its 12 voters wanted a rise on the spot.

Table view — the same figures as text

Series	As printed
Hold	10
For a rise	2

Source: Geopolitical & Policy Risk edition, Oct 29 — the Fed attention card in What Needs Your Attention Today as printed.

The ECB poll — what economists expect

In a Reuters poll, 70 of 73 economists expect a hold, and 64 expect a rise in December instead — as printed.

Table view — the same figures as text

Series	As printed
Expect a hold	70 of 73
Expect a rise in December	64

Source: Geopolitical & Policy Risk edition, Oct 29 — the ECB attention card and The Queue, In Order section as printed.

In the words, not the charts: this view charts the edition’s bound figures only. The edition’s sections — What Needs Your Attention Today · 60-Second Regime Matrix · The Queue, In Order — 8:30 a.m. Data, 9:15 a.m. Frankfurt · Yesterday’s Verdicts, Read Properly — A Split Fed and a Moving Canada · The Slow Fronts — A Letter to Tehran, a Count in Jerusalem, a Door Slammed in New York · What to Watch, In Order · Value Creation vs Value Capture — include stories whose substance is narrative or conditional; those are told in the Newsletter state.