Final count — nobody at 61; 61 needed to govern, as printed.
Compare note: in the Against the line view, bars that fall short of 61 — needed to govern are dimmed; every figure is unchanged.
YOUR ARITHMETIC — the final count is the desk's, as printed. Dial in YOUR OWN seat count for a bloc and stand it against the printed majority line; the count you choose is your hypothetical, not the desk's.
| Series | As printed |
|---|---|
| Netanyahu bloc | 53 |
| Opposition bloc | 48 |
| Arab-led parties | 19 |
| Likud — largest single party | 27 |
| Yashar | 21 |
| The outgoing bloc — held | 68 |
Source: Geopolitical & Policy Risk edition, Oct 30 — the Israel count section as printed.
Ships, not statements — the desk's own rule for the strait, as printed.
| Series | As printed |
|---|---|
| Last official count — October 25 | 2 ships |
| A normal day, before the war | about 85 |
Source: Geopolitical & Policy Risk edition, Oct 30 — the Fast Clock section as printed.
The settings Frankfurt and Tokyo printed, and the readings Washington landed — as the edition prints them.
YOUR ARITHMETIC — the settings and readings above are the desk's, as printed. Dial in YOUR OWN rate or inflation figure and see where it would stand among them; the figure you choose is your hypothetical, not the desk's call.
| Series | As printed |
|---|---|
| European Central Bank deposit rate — held | 2.50% |
| Bank of Japan rate — held | 1.25% |
| Bank of Japan — the dissenter's ask | 1.50% |
| U.S. inflation, year to September | 3.6% |
| U.S. core inflation, year to September | 3.1% |
| U.S. growth, third quarter | 3.4% |
| French inflation, October | 3.8% |
| Bank of Japan core-inflation forecast, next year | 2.7% |
Source: Geopolitical & Policy Risk edition, Oct 30 — the December Queue section as printed.
Priced chances, not forecasts — the edition's own distinction, as printed.
YOUR ARITHMETIC — the priced chances above are the desk's, as printed. Dial in YOUR OWN December probability and see where it would stand among them; the figure you choose is your hypothetical, not the desk's call.
| Series | As printed |
|---|---|
| Frankfurt December rise — priced after the meeting | 88% |
| Frankfurt December rise — priced before the meeting | 80% |
| Washington December rise — priced after Thursday's data | 80% |
| Washington December rise — priced before Thursday's data | 85% |
Source: Geopolitical & Policy Risk edition, Oct 30 — the December Queue section and the scoreboard as printed.
The December contract expires today and the January contract trades lower — the edition's own warning, as printed.
YOUR ARITHMETIC — the oil ladder above is the desk's, printed points only. Dial in YOUR OWN Brent price and see where it would stand among them; the price you choose is your hypothetical, not the desk's call.
| Series | As printed |
|---|---|
| WTI — Friday morning | $103.45 |
| Brent, January contract | $112.51 |
| Brent — Thursday settle | $114.88 |
| Brent, December contract — Friday morning | $116.59 |
Source: Geopolitical & Policy Risk edition, Oct 30 — the Fast Clock section as printed.
One currency, one interest rate, three economies moving in three directions — the edition's own sentence, charted.
| Series | As printed |
|---|---|
| Germany — third-quarter growth | 0.2% |
| France — third-quarter growth (shrank) | 0.1% |
| Spain — third-quarter growth | 0.6% |
| French inflation — October print | 3.8% |
| French inflation — expected | 3.6% |
Source: Geopolitical & Policy Risk edition, Oct 30 — the Europe passage as printed.
Thursday's fall was led by tech earnings, not geopolitics — the edition's own ordering, as printed.
| Series | As printed |
|---|---|
| S&P 500 — Thursday | -0.31% |
| Nasdaq — Thursday | -1.38% |
| Brent crude — Friday morning rise | 1.49% |
| Small-company stocks — Thursday rise | about 1% |
Source: Geopolitical & Policy Risk edition, Oct 30 — the 60-Second Regime Matrix as printed.