Geopolitical & Policy Risk — Oil Closed High, Wages Cooled, Tuesday Decides (Oct 31, 2026)

Geopolitical & Policy Risk Saturday, October 31, 2026

Play with this page: every chart carries hover readouts and a table view; compare views on 3 charts · 1 your-arithmetic slider — dial in your own figure against the desk's printed lines · 1 sortable table. Everything you can reach shows only the edition’s own figures — the sliders show yours, labelled as yours.

Oil — Friday settlements, per barrel

Brent settled at its highest since April, as the edition prints it. The $4.21 gap between the two Brent contracts is the calendar changing contracts, not a price fall — quote January from Monday.

Table view — the same figures as text

Series	As printed
Brent — December contract (expired Friday)	$117.64
Brent — January contract (the live quote from Monday)	$113.43
WTI — the US benchmark	$104.12

Source: Geopolitical & Policy Risk edition, Oct 31 — the oil attention card and Read the Spread, settlements as printed.

Oil — Friday's rise and October's climb

Oil closed the month sharply higher, as the edition prints the settlements: the December Brent contract rose $2.76 on Friday and WTI rose $2.12.

Table view — the same figures as text

Series	As printed
Brent, December contract	2.4%
WTI	2.08%
Brent — the month	+13.6%
WTI — the month	+15.2%

Source: Geopolitical & Policy Risk edition, Oct 31 — the oil attention card, Friday and October moves as printed.

Pay is cooling — the labour-cost prints

The broadest official measure of what employers pay eased again, and pay adjusted for inflation fell over the year — energy, not pay, is carrying inflation, as the edition frames the evidence.

Table view — the same figures as text

Series	As printed
Labour costs — third-quarter rise	0.8%
Labour costs — the quarter before	0.9%
Labour costs — over the year	3.4%
Wages — over the year	3.1%
Pay adjusted for inflation — over the year	−0.6%

Source: Geopolitical & Policy Risk edition, Oct 31 — The Big Picture, Bureau of Labor Statistics figures via Reuters, as printed.

Inflation against the 2% target

Frankfurt's December rise is priced at two-in-three; Washington's preferred gauge runs cooler but still above target, as the edition prints both.

Compare note: in the Against the line view, bars that fall short of 2% — the target are dimmed; every figure is unchanged.

Table view — the same figures as text

Series	As printed
Euro-area inflation	3.8%
US PCE price index — September (the Fed's preferred gauge)	3.6%

Source: Geopolitical & Policy Risk edition, Oct 31 — the attention cards and The Big Picture, as printed.

Israel — the final count, in seats

Final count — nobody at 61; results go to the president on Wednesday and coalition talks follow, as the edition prints the count.

Compare note: in the Against the line view, bars that fall short of 61 — needed to govern are dimmed; every figure is unchanged.

YOUR ARITHMETIC — the final count above is the desk's, as printed. Dial in YOUR OWN seat count for a bloc and stand it against the 61 needed to govern; the figure you choose is your hypothetical, not the desk's.

Table view — the same figures as text

Series	As printed
Netanyahu's bloc	53
The opposition	48
Arab-led parties	19

Source: Geopolitical & Policy Risk edition, Oct 31 — the State of Play table and the dated watch list; Israel's Central Elections Committee final count, as printed.

Stocks fell on chips, not on war — Friday's moves

Friday's rout was a technology story in chip stocks, as the edition prints it — and that ordering can flip on one headline.

Table view — the same figures as text

Series	As printed
S&P 500	-1.82%
Nasdaq	-2.86%

Source: Geopolitical & Policy Risk edition, Oct 31 — the stocks attention card and Read the Spread; Market Briefer closes, as printed.

The desk's call — next week's Brent band

On the record, and scored next Saturday: the desk calls Brent's January contract to end next week inside the band on this panel — outside it, in either direction, and the desk was wrong. The January settlement at $113.43 is the starting point.

Table view — the same figures as text

Series	As printed
Brent, January contract — the desk's range for next week	$106 → $120

Source: Geopolitical & Policy Risk edition, Oct 31 — the dated watch list, the desk's call as printed.

The week in numbers — closes and counts

Every figure exactly as the edition prints it: Friday's closes, the desk's own Hormuz day count, and the supply leaks at the edges.

The edition's closes and counts in one table.
Reading, as printed
S&P 500 — Friday close	7,580.07
10-year Treasury yield — Friday close	4.93%
Strait of Hormuz closure — days, by the desk's count	244
Libya pipeline halt — barrels a day	15,000
US rig count — Friday's change	2
Trade rerouted — McKinsey's count	$165 billion
Direct US–China trade — the fall	30%

Source: Geopolitical & Policy Risk edition, Oct 31 — the attention cards, Read the Spread and the State of Play, as printed.

In the words, not the charts: this view charts the edition’s bound figures only. The edition’s sections — The Short Version — The Week in Plain Words · What Needs Your Attention Today · The 60-Second State of Play — Five Fronts in One Table · The Big Picture — Energy Is the Inflation, Pay Is Not · Read the Spread, Not the Headline · The Dated Watch List — What to Watch, In Order · Value Creation vs Value Capture — include stories whose substance is narrative or conditional; those are told in the Newsletter state.