TAPE — Gold held $4,206 (++1.17%) while silver slipped 1.4% and copper miners fell 1.6%. But the miners finally stopped lagging: GDX +1.47% beat GLD +0.73%, and the GDX/GLD ratio is up +1.1% over 5 days after a 20-day washout that took GDX 9.7% lower.
BALANCE SHEET — The fear trade is overdone on the numbers: Newmont sits on net cash (net debt/EBITDA −0.22×) with a 38% trailing FCF margin and an 8% FCF yield at today's price. Freeport: 5.8% FCF yield, 0.7× leverage. These are not 2012 balance sheets.
MACRO — The Sept FOMC minutes showed most policymakers expect another hike by year-end — and gold rose anyway (+0.4% spot, futures +0.44% to $4,131.80). Silver closed at a record $59.06. Hawkish Fed, rising metal: the fear bid is beating the rate bid right now.
| Asset | 30 days | Last | 1 day | 5 days | 20 days | vs 50d | vs 200d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold | $4,206 | +1.05% | +0.92% | -4.72% | -4.1% | -7.3% | |
| Silver | $60.60 | +1.68% | +0.01% | -7.31% | -6.3% | -14.7% | |
| Copper (CPER futures proxy) | $39.46 | -0.88% | -0.13% | +1.08% | -1.1% | +5.0% | |
| Platinum (PPLT ETF) | $14.82 | +0.27% | -4.45% | -8.12% | -7.2% | -16.0% | |
| Crude (USO ETF) | $147.58 | +2.55% | -1.63% | -6.82% | +6.4% | +26.4% | |
| GLD (gold) | $378.62 | +0.73% | -1.08% | -4.48% | -4.6% | -8.9% | |
| GDX (gold miners) | $86.72 | +1.47% | -0.02% | -9.69% | -6.2% | -4.8% | |
| GDXJ (juniors) | $110.90 | +1.61% | -1.39% | -10.64% | -7.5% | -7.3% | |
| SLV (silver) | $53.45 | -0.69% | -2.85% | -7.04% | -7.7% | -18.8% | |
| SIL (silver miners) | $84.68 | +1.34% | -1.11% | -11.98% | -7.5% | -7.3% | |
| COPX (copper miners) | $82.22 | -1.63% | -1.41% | -7.21% | -6.4% | -1.2% | |
| FCX | $71.13 | -1.00% | +2.68% | -0.10% | -0.3% | +11.0% | |
| NEM | $115.55 | +1.77% | +0.77% | -8.40% | -3.4% | +3.3% |
Ratios: gold/silver 69.4 · GDX/GLD 0.2290 (+1.1% 5d). Copper via CPER (futures index), platinum via PPLT — spot feeds not on this data tier.
| Lever | 30 days | Last | 1 day | 5 days | 20 days | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD / CAD | 1.4232 | +0.07% | -0.38% | +1.77% | CAD weaker = cost tailwind | |
| USD / MXN | 18.1811 | +0.06% | -0.10% | +5.50% | MXN much weaker = big tailwind | |
| USD / CLP | 972.9199 | -1.05% | -0.87% | +1.48% | CLP move = watch | |
| USD / AUD | 1.4329 | -0.23% | -0.58% | +1.60% | AUD move = watch |
GDX (miners) vs GLD (gold), indexed to 100 six months ago. Shaded: last 5 trading days — the catch-up.
Read: after trailing gold for weeks, miners outperformed the metal 4 of the last 5 sessions. Mean-reversion of the miner discount — not yet a trend.
| Producer | Price | 1 day | FCF yield (TTM) | FCF margin | Net debt / EBITDA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newmont Corporation (NEM) | $115.55 | +1.77% | 7.9% | 38% | -0.22× |
| Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX) | $71.13 | -1.02% | 5.8% | 23% | +0.70× |
| Albemarle Corporation (ALB) | $102.10 | -0.63% | 9.7% | 23% | +0.33× |
Source: FMP Premium quarterly financials, computed from filed statements (TTM ending 2026-06-30); market caps at 2026-10-08 close. NEM's net-cash position is the single most mispriced fact in the senior gold space this morning.
News section pending — subscriber pull in progress.
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