TAPE — Gold held $4,216 (+1.43% 1d) while silver moved +2.73% and copper miners (COPX) moved +4.29%. Miners vs metal: GDX +2.95% vs GLD +1.57% — and the GDX/GLD ratio is +0.5% over 5 days (-4.7% over 20).
BALANCE SHEET — The fear trade is overdone on the numbers: Newmont sits on net cash (net debt/EBITDA -0.22×) with a 38% trailing FCF margin and a 7.7% FCF yield at today's price. Freeport: 5.6% FCF yield, 0.70× leverage. These are not 2012 balance sheets.
MACRO — The Sept FOMC minutes showed most policymakers expect another hike by year-end — and gold rose anyway (+1.43% 1d). Silver closed at $61.05 (+2.73% 1d). Hawkish Fed, rising metal: the fear bid is beating the rate bid right now.
| Asset | 30 days | Last | 1 day | 5 days | 20 days | vs 50d | vs 200d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold | $4,216 | +1.43% | +1.30% | -4.37% | -3.8% | -7.1% | |
| Silver | $61.05 | +2.73% | +1.05% | -6.35% | -5.6% | -14.0% | |
| Copper (CPER futures proxy) | $40.31 | +2.15% | +2.00% | +2.88% | +1.0% | +7.2% | |
| Platinum (PPLT ETF) | $15.25 | +2.90% | -1.17% | -6.21% | -4.5% | -13.5% | |
| Crude (USO ETF) | $148.20 | +0.42% | +0.56% | -4.33% | +6.5% | +26.5% | |
| GLD (gold) | $384.58 | +1.57% | +1.17% | -3.56% | -3.1% | -7.5% | |
| GDX (gold miners) | $89.28 | +2.95% | +1.71% | -8.05% | -3.7% | -2.0% | |
| GDXJ (juniors) | $114.43 | +3.18% | +0.69% | -8.76% | -4.8% | -4.3% | |
| SLV (silver) | $54.78 | +2.49% | +0.07% | -5.75% | -5.5% | -16.7% | |
| SIL (silver miners) | $86.85 | +2.56% | +0.40% | -9.87% | -5.3% | -4.9% | |
| COPX (copper miners) | $85.75 | +4.29% | -0.19% | -3.14% | -2.5% | +2.9% | |
| FCX | $73.69 | +3.58% | +2.29% | +3.69% | +3.0% | +14.8% | |
| NEM | $117.84 | +1.98% | +1.97% | -7.07% | -1.9% | +5.3% |
Ratios: gold/silver 69.1 · GDX/GLD 0.2321 (+0.5% 5d). Copper via CPER (futures index), platinum via PPLT — spot feeds not on this data tier.
| Lever | 30 days | Last | 1 day | 5 days | 20 days | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD / CAD | 1.4257 | +0.20% | -0.25% | +1.90% | CAD weaker = cost tailwind | |
| USD / MXN | 18.3880 | +1.21% | +1.05% | +6.71% | MXN much weaker = big tailwind | |
| USD / CLP | 975.0600 | -0.29% | -0.11% | +2.25% | CLP move = watch | |
| USD / AUD | 1.4311 | -0.36% | -0.70% | +1.47% | AUD move = watch |
GDX (miners) vs GLD (gold), indexed to 100 six months ago. Shaded: last 5 trading days — the catch-up.
Read: after trailing gold for weeks, miners outperformed the metal 4 of the last 5 sessions. Mean-reversion of the miner discount — not yet a trend.
| Producer | Price | 1 day | FCF yield (TTM) | FCF margin | Net debt / EBITDA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newmont Corporation (NEM) | $117.84 | +1.98% | 7.7% | 38% | -0.22× |
| Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX) | $73.69 | +3.58% | 5.6% | 23% | +0.70× |
| Albemarle Corporation (ALB) | $101.27 | -0.81% | 9.7% | 23% | +0.33× |
Source: FMP Premium quarterly financials, computed from filed statements (TTM ending 2026-06-30); market caps at 2026-10-08 close. NEM's net-cash position is the single most mispriced fact in the senior gold space this morning.
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