Read Achilles
Precious & base metals · daily brief REAL DATA · 2026-10-15 CLOSE
TL;DR — TAPE — Gold held $4,176 (+1.65% 1d) while silver moved +1.62% and copper miners (COPX) moved -4.24%. Miners vs metal: GDX -4.40% vs GLD -1.49% — and the GDX/GLD ratio is -2.4% over 5 days (-6.4% over 20).
The opening paragraph, up front — the full story follows below.
~4 min read
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1 · BOTTOM LINE
TAPE — Gold held $4,176 (+1.65% 1d) while silver moved +1.62% and copper miners (COPX) moved -4.24%. Miners vs metal: GDX -4.40% vs GLD -1.49% — and the GDX/GLD ratio is -2.4% over 5 days (-6.4% over 20).
BALANCE SHEET — The fear trade is overdone on the numbers: Newmont sits on net cash (net debt/EBITDA -0.22×) with a 38% trailing FCF margin and a 8.2% FCF yield at today's price. Freeport: 5.9% FCF yield, 0.70× leverage. These are not 2012 balance sheets.
MACRO — The Sept FOMC minutes showed most policymakers expect another hike by year-end — and gold rose (+1.65% 1d). Silver closed at $56.80 (+1.62% 1d). Hawkish Fed, rising metal: the fear bid is beating the rate bid right now.
2 · TAPE & MARGINS
| Asset | 30 days | Last | 1 day | 5 days | 20 days | vs 50d | vs 200d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold | $4,176 | +1.65% | +0.45% | -5.09% | -4.7% | -7.7% | |
| Silver | $56.80 | +1.62% | -4.45% | -14.09% | -11.9% | -19.5% | |
| Copper (CPER futures proxy) | $39.66 | -1.95% | -0.38% | +2.77% | -0.7% | +5.2% | |
| Platinum (PPLT ETF) | $14.48 | -3.79% | -2.03% | -8.53% | -9.3% | -17.4% | |
| Crude (USO ETF) | $153.56 | +0.31% | +6.71% | -1.67% | +8.9% | +29.7% | |
| GLD (gold) | $375.99 | -1.49% | +0.03% | -4.02% | -5.4% | -9.4% | |
| GDX (gold miners) | $83.40 | -4.40% | -2.41% | -10.13% | -10.6% | -8.4% | |
| GDXJ (juniors) | $104.75 | -5.32% | -4.02% | -11.24% | -13.3% | -12.3% | |
| SLV (silver) | $50.22 | -6.11% | -6.69% | -11.97% | -13.3% | -23.4% | |
| SIL (silver miners) | $79.53 | -5.45% | -4.82% | -12.54% | -13.7% | -12.9% | |
| COPX (copper miners) | $80.82 | -4.24% | -3.30% | -4.00% | -8.3% | -3.1% | |
| FCX | $69.62 | -3.87% | -3.12% | +0.55% | -3.3% | +7.9% | |
| NEM | $111.56 | -3.49% | -1.74% | -8.38% | -8.0% | -0.4% |
Ratios: gold/silver 73.5 · GDX/GLD 0.2218 (-2.4% 5d). Copper via CPER (futures index), platinum via PPLT — spot feeds not on this data tier.
Cost-currency levers — weaker local currency = lower USD costs
| Lever | 30 days | Last | 1 day | 5 days | 20 days | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD / CAD | 1.4205 | -0.22% | -0.34% | +1.06% | CAD weaker = cost tailwind | |
| USD / MXN | 18.4855 | -0.00% | +0.45% | +6.97% | MXN much weaker = big tailwind | |
| USD / CLP | 989.1200 | +0.00% | +0.89% | +4.06% | CLP move = watch | |
| USD / AUD | 1.4450 | +0.77% | +0.96% | +2.90% | AUD move = watch |
3 · THE ONE CHART — MINERS VS METAL
GDX (miners) vs GLD (gold), indexed to 100 six months ago. Shaded: last 5 trading days — the catch-up.
Read: after trailing gold for weeks, miners outperformed the metal 4 of the last 5 sessions. Mean-reversion of the miner discount — not yet a trend.
4 · NARRATIVE vs REALITY
| Producer | Price | 1 day | FCF yield (TTM) | FCF margin | Net debt / EBITDA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newmont Corporation (NEM) | $111.56 | -3.49% | 8.2% | 38% | -0.22× |
| Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX) | $69.62 | -3.87% | 5.9% | 23% | +0.70× |
| Albemarle Corporation (ALB) | $97.97 | +0.33% | 10.1% | 23% | +0.33× |
Source: FMP Premium quarterly financials, computed from filed statements (TTM ending 2026-06-30); market caps at 2026-10-08 close. NEM's net-cash position is the single most mispriced fact in the senior gold space this morning.
5 · NEXT 5 TRADING DAYS
Net Long-Term TIC Flows (Aug) · CFTC Crude Oil speculative net positions · CFTC S&P 500 speculative net positions
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