Read Achilles
Precious & base metals · daily brief 2026-10-20 · SETTLED CLOSE
TL;DR — TAPE — Gold held $4,140 (-0.42% 1d) while silver moved +1.27% and copper miners (COPX) moved -0.68%. Miners vs metal: GDX -0.43% vs GLD -0.54% — and the GDX/GLD ratio is -0.3% over 5 days (-6.8% over 20).
The opening paragraph, up front — the full story follows below.
~5 min read
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1 · BOTTOM LINE
TAPE — Gold held $4,140 (-0.42% 1d) while silver moved +1.27% and copper miners (COPX) moved -0.68%. Miners vs metal: GDX -0.43% vs GLD -0.54% — and the GDX/GLD ratio is -0.3% over 5 days (-6.8% over 20).
BALANCE SHEET — The fear trade is overdone on the numbers: Newmont sits on net cash (net debt/EBITDA -0.22×) with a 38% trailing FCF margin and a 7.8% FCF yield at today's price. Freeport: 6.0% FCF yield, 0.70× leverage. These are not 2012 balance sheets.
MACRO — Gold eased (-0.42% 1d). Silver closed at $57.60 (+1.27% 1d). Mixed metal: the day split between the fear bid and the rate bid.
2 · TAPE & MARGINS
| Asset | 30 days | Last | 1 day | 5 days | 20 days | vs 50d | vs 200d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold | $4,140 | -0.42% | -0.83% | -5.34% | -5.1% | -8.2% | |
| Silver | $57.60 | +1.27% | -2.56% | -12.82% | -10.1% | -17.9% | |
| Copper (CPER futures proxy) | $39.75 | +0.45% | -1.73% | -4.06% | -0.3% | +5.2% | |
| Platinum (PPLT ETF) | $14.95 | +0.88% | -0.66% | -10.05% | -5.9% | -14.3% | |
| Crude (USO ETF) | $160.61 | -0.12% | +4.91% | +11.47% | +11.4% | +33.6% | |
| GLD (gold) | $377.65 | -0.54% | -1.05% | -5.60% | -4.7% | -9.0% | |
| GDX (gold miners) | $86.10 | -0.43% | -1.31% | -11.99% | -7.7% | -5.4% | |
| GDXJ (juniors) | $107.84 | -0.48% | -2.52% | -15.73% | -10.5% | -9.6% | |
| SLV (silver) | $52.12 | +1.13% | -2.56% | -14.18% | -9.4% | -20.1% | |
| SIL (silver miners) | $81.39 | -0.60% | -3.23% | -16.45% | -11.4% | -10.8% | |
| COPX (copper miners) | $79.15 | -0.68% | -6.22% | -12.04% | -9.6% | -5.3% | |
| FCX | $68.89 | -1.26% | -4.90% | -7.37% | -4.3% | +6.2% | |
| NEM | $116.81 | -1.02% | +1.06% | -8.21% | -4.1% | +4.0% |
Ratios: gold/silver 71.9 · GDX/GLD 0.2280 (-0.3% 5d). Copper via CPER (futures index), platinum via PPLT (ETF) — exchange-traded proxies for spot.
Cost-currency levers — weaker local currency = lower USD costs
| Lever | 30 days | Last | 1 day | 5 days | 20 days | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD / CAD | 1.4063 | -0.33% | -1.22% | -0.63% | CAD slightly stronger on 1d/5d/20d = cost headwind | |
| USD / MXN | 18.4260 | +0.04% | -0.30% | +3.97% | MXN much weaker over 20d (5d stronger) = net cost tailwind (mixed) | |
| USD / CLP | 978.4700 | -0.69% | -1.08% | +1.76% | CLP weaker over 20d (1d stronger/5d stronger) = net cost tailwind (mixed) | |
| USD / AUD | 1.4248 | -0.54% | -0.63% | +0.12% | AUD flat over 20d (1d stronger/5d stronger) = cost impact mixed |
Rates & the dollar — nominal Treasury yields; the metal's rate headwind, measured
Treasury yields as of 2026-10-20 (latest published curve, FMP). Yields are nominal — the TIPS real yield is not currently sourced.
3 · THE ONE CHART — MINERS VS METAL
GDX (miners) vs GLD (gold), indexed to 100 six months ago. Shaded: last 5 trading days — the latest leg.
Read: miners lagged gold over the window — GDX outperformed the metal in only 3 of the last 5 sessions (5-day GDX -1.31% vs GLD -1.05%), widening the miner discount rather than mean-reverting it.
4 · NARRATIVE vs REALITY
| Producer | Price | 1 day | FCF yield (TTM) | FCF margin | Net debt / EBITDA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newmont Corporation (NEM) | $116.81 | -1.02% | 7.8% | 38% | -0.22× |
| Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX) | $68.89 | -1.26% | 6.0% | 23% | +0.70× |
| Albemarle Corporation (ALB) | $95.77 | +1.19% | 10.3% | 23% | +0.33× |
Source: FMP Premium quarterly financials, computed from filed statements (TTM ending 2026-06-30); market caps at 2026-10-20 close — price × latest diluted shares. NEM's net-cash position is the single most mispriced fact in the senior gold space this morning.
5 · NEXT 5 TRADING DAYS
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (Oct/16) · EIA Gasoline Stocks Change (Oct/16) · MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (Oct/16)
Jobless Claims 4-Week Average (Oct/17) · New Housing Price Index MoM (Sep) · Continuing Jobless Claims (Oct/10)
CFTC S&P 500 speculative net positions · CFTC Gold Speculative net positions · CFTC Crude Oil speculative net positions
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (Oct) · Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Sep)
API Crude Oil Stock Change (Oct/23) · New Home Sales (Sep) · CB Consumer Confidence (Oct)