Read Achilles
Precious & base metals · daily brief 2026-10-22 · SETTLED CLOSE
TL;DR — TAPE — Gold held $4,060 (-2.19% 1d) while silver moved -4.76% and copper miners (COPX) moved -6.23%. Miners vs metal: GDX -5.63% vs GLD -2.20% — and the GDX/GLD ratio is -2.9% over 5 days (-6.3% over 20).
The opening paragraph, up front — the full story follows below.
~4 min read
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1 · BOTTOM LINE
TAPE — Gold held $4,060 (-2.19% 1d) while silver moved -4.76% and copper miners (COPX) moved -6.23%. Miners vs metal: GDX -5.63% vs GLD -2.20% — and the GDX/GLD ratio is -2.9% over 5 days (-6.3% over 20).
BALANCE SHEET — The fear trade is overdone on the numbers: Newmont sits on net cash (net debt/EBITDA -0.22×) with a 38% trailing FCF margin and a 8.1% FCF yield at today's price. Freeport: 6.3% FCF yield, 0.70× leverage. These are not 2012 balance sheets.
MACRO — Gold eased (-2.19% 1d). Silver closed at $54.98 (-4.76% 1d). Softer metal: the 10-year yield was little changed (+1 bp) on the day.
2 · TAPE & MARGINS
| Asset | 30 days | Last | 1 day | 5 days | 20 days | vs 50d | vs 200d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spot cash prices | |||||||
| Gold | $4,060 | -2.19% | -2.66% | -5.56% | -6.7% | -9.8% | |
| Silver | $54.98 | -4.76% | -3.83% | -14.12% | -13.7% | -21.5% | |
| Exchange-traded share / index prices (proxies, funds & equities — not spot) | |||||||
| Copper (CPER futures proxy) | $38.51 | -2.59% | -2.37% | -5.25% | -3.3% | +1.9% | |
| Platinum (PPLT ETF) | $14.23 | -3.62% | -3.56% | -10.47% | -10.1% | -18.1% | |
| Crude (USO ETF) | $163.65 | +2.20% | +3.81% | +6.68% | +12.4% | +35.1% | |
| GLD (gold) | $370.54 | -2.20% | -3.16% | -5.38% | -6.2% | -10.6% | |
| GDX (gold miners) | $81.84 | -5.63% | -5.95% | -11.38% | -12.0% | -10.1% | |
| GDXJ (juniors) | $101.58 | -6.38% | -7.31% | -15.21% | -15.3% | -14.8% | |
| SLV (silver) | $49.51 | -5.24% | -4.62% | -14.06% | -13.4% | -23.9% | |
| SIL (silver miners) | $76.15 | -6.42% | -7.44% | -16.25% | -16.6% | -16.4% | |
| COPX (copper miners) | $73.18 | -6.23% | -9.49% | -15.18% | -15.9% | -12.4% | |
| FCX | $64.75 | -6.09% | -7.64% | -10.23% | -10.0% | -0.4% | |
| NEM | $112.05 | -4.37% | -3.22% | -7.62% | -8.0% | -0.4% | |
Ratios: gold/silver 73.8 · GDX/GLD 0.2209 (-2.9% 5d). Copper via CPER (futures index), platinum via PPLT (ETF) — exchange-traded proxies for spot.
Cost-currency levers — weaker local currency = lower USD costs
| Lever | 30 days | Last | 1 day | 5 days | 20 days | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD / CAD | 1.4006 | -0.28% | -0.93% | -1.29% | CAD stronger on 1d/5d/20d = cost headwind | |
| USD / MXN | 18.7040 | +0.16% | +1.23% | +3.70% | MXN much weaker on 1d/5d/20d = cost tailwind | |
| USD / CLP | 985.0200 | -0.02% | -0.41% | +0.87% | CLP slightly weaker over 20d (1d stronger/5d stronger) = cost impact mixed | |
| USD / AUD | 1.4235 | +0.08% | -1.08% | -0.46% | AUD slightly stronger over 20d (1d weaker) = cost impact mixed |
Rates & the dollar — nominal Treasury yields; the metal's rate headwind, measured
Treasury yields as of 2026-10-21 (latest published curve, FMP). Yields are nominal — the TIPS real yield is not currently sourced.
3 · THE ONE CHART — MINERS VS METAL
GDX (miners) vs GLD (gold), indexed to 100 six months ago. Shaded: last 5 trading days — the latest leg.
Read: miners lagged gold over the window — GDX outperformed the metal in only 3 of the last 5 sessions (5-day GDX -5.95% vs GLD -3.16%), widening the miner discount rather than mean-reverting it.
4 · NARRATIVE vs REALITY
| Producer | Price | 1 day | FCF yield (TTM) | FCF margin | Net debt / EBITDA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newmont Corporation (NEM) | $112.05 | -4.37% | 8.1% | 38% | -0.22× |
| Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX) | $64.75 | -6.09% | 6.3% | 23% | +0.70× |
| Albemarle Corporation (ALB) | $92.16 | -2.45% | 10.7% | 23% | +0.33× |
Source: FMP Premium quarterly financials, computed from filed statements (TTM ending 2026-06-30); market caps at 2026-10-22 close — price × latest diluted shares. NEM's net-cash position is the single most mispriced fact in the senior gold space this morning.
5 · NEXT 5 TRADING DAYS
CFTC Gold Speculative net positions · CFTC Nasdaq 100 speculative net positions · CFTC Crude Oil speculative net positions
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (Oct) · Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Sep)
API Crude Oil Stock Change (Oct/23) · New Home Sales (Sep) · New Home Sales MoM (Sep)
Press Conference · FOMC Economic Projections · Fed Interest Rate Decision
Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q4) · PCE Price Index MoM (Sep) · Core PCE Price Index YoY (Sep)