Read Achilles
Precious & base metals · daily brief 2026-10-24 · SETTLED CLOSE
TL;DR — TAPE — Gold held $4,008 (-1.29% 1d) while silver moved -1.92% and copper miners (COPX) moved -0.05%. Miners vs metal: GDX -1.82% vs GLD -0.65% — and the GDX/GLD ratio is -4.7% over 5 days (-7.3% over 20).
The opening paragraph, up front — the full story follows below.
~4 min read
No sections match your search.
1 · BOTTOM LINE
TAPE — Gold held $4,008 (-1.29% 1d) while silver moved -1.92% and copper miners (COPX) moved -0.05%. Miners vs metal: GDX -1.82% vs GLD -0.65% — and the GDX/GLD ratio is -4.7% over 5 days (-7.3% over 20).
BALANCE SHEET — The fear trade is overdone on the numbers: Newmont sits on net cash (net debt/EBITDA -0.22×) with a 38% trailing FCF margin and a 8.4% FCF yield at today's price. Freeport: 6.3% FCF yield, 0.70× leverage. These are not 2012 balance sheets.
MACRO — Gold eased (-1.29% 1d). Silver closed at $53.95 (-1.92% 1d). Softer metal: the 10-year yield rose 4 bp, a rate headwind on the day.
2 · TAPE & MARGINS
| Asset | 30 days | Last | 1 day | 5 days | 20 days | vs 50d | vs 200d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spot cash prices | |||||||
| Gold | $4,008 | -1.29% | -4.14% | -7.25% | -7.7% | -10.8% | |
| Silver | $53.95 | -1.92% | -5.86% | -16.75% | -15.0% | -22.8% | |
| Exchange-traded share / index prices (proxies, funds & equities — not spot) | |||||||
| Copper (CPER futures proxy) | $39.06 | +1.53% | -1.11% | -3.82% | -1.9% | +3.3% | |
| Platinum (PPLT ETF) | $14.05 | -1.06% | -4.75% | -12.68% | -11.1% | -19.0% | |
| Crude (USO ETF) | $169.53 | +4.32% | +4.80% | +14.29% | +15.7% | +39.4% | |
| GLD (gold) | $366.61 | -0.65% | -4.03% | -6.81% | -7.1% | -11.5% | |
| GDX (gold miners) | $80.20 | -1.82% | -8.56% | -13.64% | -13.6% | -11.8% | |
| GDXJ (juniors) | $99.35 | -1.83% | -9.61% | -17.97% | -16.9% | -16.6% | |
| SLV (silver) | $48.72 | -1.26% | -5.42% | -16.20% | -14.5% | -25.0% | |
| SIL (silver miners) | $74.06 | -2.54% | -10.23% | -19.11% | -18.6% | -18.7% | |
| COPX (copper miners) | $73.09 | -0.05% | -8.61% | -15.73% | -15.8% | -12.5% | |
| FCX | $65.18 | +0.91% | -6.27% | -9.86% | -9.3% | +0.2% | |
| NEM | $108.87 | -4.59% | -8.20% | -10.34% | -10.5% | -3.2% | |
Ratios: gold/silver 74.3 · GDX/GLD 0.2188 (-4.7% 5d). Copper via CPER (futures index), platinum via PPLT (ETF) — exchange-traded proxies for spot.
Cost-currency levers — weaker local currency = lower USD costs
| Lever | 30 days | Last | 1 day | 5 days | 20 days | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD / CAD | 1.4001 | -0.04% | -0.83% | -1.62% | CAD stronger on 1d/5d/20d = cost headwind | |
| USD / MXN | 18.6625 | -0.38% | +1.08% | +3.19% | MXN much weaker over 20d (1d stronger) = net cost tailwind (mixed) | |
| USD / CLP | 994.7600 | +0.90% | +2.07% | +2.30% | CLP weaker on 1d/5d/20d = cost tailwind | |
| USD / AUD | 1.4209 | -0.27% | -0.84% | -1.27% | AUD stronger on 1d/5d/20d = cost headwind |
Rates & the dollar — nominal Treasury yields; the metal's rate headwind, measured
Treasury yields as of 2026-10-23 (latest published curve, FMP). Yields are nominal — the TIPS real yield is not currently sourced.
3 · THE ONE CHART — MINERS VS METAL
GDX (miners) vs GLD (gold), indexed to 100 six months ago. Shaded: last 5 trading days — the latest leg.
Read: miners lagged gold over the window — GDX outperformed the metal in only 2 of the last 5 sessions (5-day GDX -8.56% vs GLD -4.03%), widening the miner discount rather than mean-reverting it.
4 · NARRATIVE vs REALITY
| Producer | Price | 1 day | FCF yield (TTM) | FCF margin | Net debt / EBITDA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newmont Corporation (NEM) | $108.87 | -4.59% | 8.4% | 38% | -0.22× |
| Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX) | $65.18 | +0.91% | 6.3% | 23% | +0.70× |
| Albemarle Corporation (ALB) | $93.67 | +1.22% | 10.5% | 23% | +0.33× |
Source: FMP Premium quarterly financials, computed from filed statements (TTM ending 2026-06-30); market caps at 2026-10-24 close — price × latest diluted shares. NEM's net-cash position is the single most mispriced fact in the senior gold space this morning.
5 · NEXT 5 TRADING DAYS
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (Oct) · Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Sep)
API Crude Oil Stock Change (Oct/23) · New Home Sales (Sep) · CB Consumer Confidence (Oct)
Press Conference · FOMC Economic Projections · Fed Interest Rate Decision
Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q4) · Core PCE Price Index MoM (Sep) · Jobless Claims 4-Week Average (Oct/24)
CFTC S&P 500 speculative net positions · CFTC Gold Speculative net positions · CFTC Crude Oil speculative net positions