TAPE — Gold held $4,030 (+0.58% 1d) while silver moved +0.14% and copper miners (COPX) moved -0.05%. Miners vs metal: GDX -1.82% vs GLD -0.65% — and the GDX/GLD ratio is -4.7% over 5 days (-7.3% over 20).
BALANCE SHEET — The fear trade is overdone on the numbers: Newmont sits on net cash (net debt/EBITDA -0.22×) with a 38% trailing FCF margin and a 8.4% FCF yield at today's price. Freeport: 6.3% FCF yield, 0.70× leverage. These are not 2012 balance sheets.
MACRO — Gold rose (+0.58% 1d). Silver closed at $54.02 (+0.14% 1d). Rising metal: gained despite a rate headwind as the 10-year yield rose 4 bp.
| Asset | 30 days | Last | 1 day | 5 days | 20 days | vs 50d | vs 200d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spot cash prices | |||||||
| Gold | $4,030 | +0.58% | -3.10% | -3.29% | -7.0% | -10.2% | |
| Silver | $54.02 | +0.14% | -5.67% | -12.46% | -14.6% | -22.6% | |
| Exchange-traded share / index prices (proxies, funds & equities — not spot) | |||||||
| Copper (CPER futures proxy) | $39.06 | +1.53% | -1.11% | -3.82% | -1.9% | +3.3% | |
| Platinum (PPLT ETF) | $14.05 | -1.06% | -4.75% | -12.68% | -11.1% | -19.0% | |
| Crude (USO ETF) | $169.53 | +4.32% | +4.80% | +14.29% | +15.7% | +39.4% | |
| GLD (gold) | $366.61 | -0.65% | -4.03% | -6.81% | -7.1% | -11.5% | |
| GDX (gold miners) | $80.20 | -1.82% | -8.56% | -13.64% | -13.6% | -11.8% | |
| GDXJ (juniors) | $99.35 | -1.83% | -9.61% | -17.97% | -16.9% | -16.6% | |
| SLV (silver) | $48.72 | -1.26% | -5.42% | -16.20% | -14.5% | -25.0% | |
| SIL (silver miners) | $74.06 | -2.54% | -10.23% | -19.11% | -18.6% | -18.7% | |
| COPX (copper miners) | $73.09 | -0.05% | -8.61% | -15.73% | -15.8% | -12.5% | |
| FCX | $65.18 | +0.91% | -6.27% | -9.86% | -9.3% | +0.2% | |
| NEM | $108.87 | -4.59% | -8.20% | -10.34% | -10.5% | -3.2% | |
Ratios: gold/silver 74.6 · GDX/GLD 0.2188 (-4.7% 5d). Copper via CPER (futures index), platinum via PPLT (ETF) — exchange-traded proxies for spot.
| Lever | 30 days | Last | 1 day | 5 days | 20 days | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD / CAD | 1.4014 | +0.08% | -0.31% | -1.63% | CAD stronger over 20d (1d weaker) = net cost headwind (mixed) | |
| USD / MXN | 18.7356 | +0.20% | +1.74% | +3.14% | MXN much weaker on 1d/5d/20d = cost tailwind | |
| USD / CLP | 995.5415 | -0.35% | +1.05% | +0.65% | CLP slightly weaker over 20d (1d stronger) = cost impact mixed | |
| USD / AUD | 1.4219 | -0.01% | -0.32% | -1.06% | AUD stronger on 1d/5d/20d = cost headwind |
Treasury yields as of 2026-10-23 (latest published curve, FMP). Yields are nominal — the TIPS real yield is not currently sourced.
GDX (miners) vs GLD (gold), indexed to 100 six months ago. Shaded: last 5 trading days — the latest leg.
Read: miners lagged gold over the window — GDX outperformed the metal in only 2 of the last 5 sessions (5-day GDX -8.56% vs GLD -4.03%), widening the miner discount rather than mean-reverting it.
| Producer | Price | 1 day | FCF yield (TTM) | FCF margin | Net debt / EBITDA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newmont Corporation (NEM) | $108.87 | -4.59% | 8.4% | 38% | -0.22× |
| Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX) | $65.18 | +0.91% | 6.3% | 23% | +0.70× |
| Albemarle Corporation (ALB) | $93.67 | +1.22% | 10.5% | 23% | +0.33× |
Source: FMP Premium quarterly financials, computed from filed statements (TTM ending 2026-06-30); market caps at 2026-10-26 close — price × latest diluted shares. NEM's net-cash position is the single most mispriced fact in the senior gold space this morning.
The desk is updating readers on our underlying research infrastructure because our mining-company research screen is currently being rebuilt to a stricter standard. While this upgrade is in progress, the current verified state of our selection knowledge is governed by the binding label: “11,718 post-screen phrase matches (v3 selection), selection precision 56% (ISA re-audit 2026-10-24), count of record NOT FILED.” To advance beyond this baseline, the v4 selection instrument (sha e399e689…) has passed IT review, and the v4 scan across 132 batches is presently running on GCP lanes. Once the scan completes, a fresh 100-work sample will be submitted for ISA re-audit. Bulk extraction of the new dataset waits on the v4 re-audit clearing a ≥70% gate threshold. Because the process remains at the scanning and verification stage, no v4 count exists yet. We will continue to report our methodology status strictly from verified audit records as the rebuild progresses.
Source: ISA knowledge base (supplied 2026-10-26).