TAPE — Gold held $4,029 (-0.31% 1d) while silver moved -1.89% and copper miners (COPX) moved +0.99%. Miners vs metal: GDX +1.02% vs GLD +0.33% — and the GDX/GLD ratio is -3.3% over 5 days (-5.3% over 20).
BALANCE SHEET — The fear trade is overdone on the numbers: Newmont sits on net cash (net debt/EBITDA -0.22×) with a 38% trailing FCF margin and a 8.3% FCF yield at today's price. Freeport: 6.3% FCF yield, 0.70× leverage. These are not 2012 balance sheets.
MACRO — Gold eased (-0.31% 1d). Silver closed at $53.37 (-1.89% 1d). Softer metal: the 10-year yield was little changed (+0 bp) on the day.
| Asset | 30 days | Last | 1 day | 5 days | 20 days | vs 50d | vs 200d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spot cash prices | |||||||
| Gold | $4,029 | -0.31% | -2.82% | -3.68% | -6.8% | -10.2% | |
| Silver | $53.37 | -1.89% | -8.08% | -12.82% | -15.3% | -23.4% | |
| Exchange-traded share / index prices (proxies, funds & equities — not spot) | |||||||
| Copper (CPER futures proxy) | $39.39 | +0.84% | -0.45% | -0.73% | -1.0% | +4.1% | |
| Platinum (PPLT ETF) | $13.83 | -1.57% | -6.68% | -11.18% | -12.2% | -20.1% | |
| Crude (USO ETF) | $166.23 | -1.95% | +3.37% | +10.81% | +12.9% | +36.2% | |
| GLD (gold) | $367.82 | +0.33% | -3.13% | -2.67% | -6.6% | -11.2% | |
| GDX (gold miners) | $81.02 | +1.02% | -6.30% | -7.82% | -12.6% | -10.9% | |
| GDXJ (juniors) | $99.94 | +0.59% | -7.77% | -12.41% | -16.2% | -16.0% | |
| SLV (silver) | $48.66 | -0.12% | -5.59% | -11.45% | -14.3% | -25.0% | |
| SIL (silver miners) | $74.66 | +0.81% | -8.82% | -14.17% | -17.7% | -18.0% | |
| COPX (copper miners) | $73.81 | +0.99% | -7.38% | -13.43% | -14.7% | -11.6% | |
| FCX | $65.16 | -0.03% | -6.58% | -9.45% | -9.3% | +0.1% | |
| NEM | $110.39 | +1.40% | -6.46% | -4.88% | -9.2% | -1.9% | |
Ratios: gold/silver 75.5 · GDX/GLD 0.2203 (-3.3% 5d). Copper via CPER (futures index), platinum via PPLT (ETF) — exchange-traded proxies for spot.
| Lever | 30 days | Last | 1 day | 5 days | 20 days | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD / CAD | 1.4018 | +0.06% | -0.19% | -1.88% | CAD stronger over 20d (1d weaker) = net cost headwind (mixed) | |
| USD / MXN | 18.6009 | +0.22% | -0.37% | +2.19% | MXN weaker over 20d (5d stronger) = net cost tailwind (mixed) | |
| USD / CLP | 987.5500 | -0.45% | +0.35% | +0.72% | CLP slightly weaker over 20d (1d stronger) = cost impact mixed | |
| USD / AUD | 1.4210 | -0.27% | -0.06% | -1.37% | AUD stronger on 1d/5d/20d = cost headwind |
Treasury yields as of 2026-10-26 (latest published curve, FMP). Yields are nominal — the TIPS real yield is not currently sourced.
GDX (miners) vs GLD (gold), indexed to 100 six months ago. Shaded: last 5 trading days — the latest leg.
Read: miners lagged gold over the window — GDX outperformed the metal in only 3 of the last 5 sessions (5-day GDX -6.30% vs GLD -3.13%), widening the miner discount rather than mean-reverting it.
| Producer | Price | 1 day | FCF yield (TTM) | FCF margin | Net debt / EBITDA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newmont Corporation (NEM) | $110.39 | +1.40% | 8.3% | 38% | -0.22× |
| Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX) | $65.16 | -0.03% | 6.3% | 23% | +0.70× |
| Albemarle Corporation (ALB) | $93.42 | -0.27% | 10.6% | 23% | +0.33× |
Source: FMP Premium quarterly financials, computed from filed statements (TTM ending 2026-06-30); market caps at 2026-10-27 close — price × latest diluted shares. NEM's net-cash position is the single most mispriced fact in the senior gold space this morning.