Below 80 on the outlook score is the survey maker's warning sign for recession within a year — the edition's own reading, on the chart's face.
Compare note: in the Against the line view, bars that fall short of 80 — the line its makers link to recession risk are dimmed; every figure is unchanged.
YOUR ARITHMETIC — the survey readings above are the desk's, as printed. Dial in YOUR OWN expectations reading and stand it against the printed recession-risk line; the reading you choose is your hypothetical, not the desk's.
| Series | As printed |
|---|---|
| Overall confidence | 91.7 |
| How today feels | 120.4 |
| How tomorrow feels | 72.6 |
Source: Retail & Luxury Fashion edition, Oct 28 — the October survey table as printed.
| Series | As printed |
|---|---|
| Confidence — September → October | 84.2 → 91.7 |
Source: Retail & Luxury Fashion edition, Oct 28 — the confidence prints as published (forecasters expected about 81).
Cheaper fuel helped the mood jump — the edition's own reading.
| Series | As printed |
|---|---|
| A gallon of regular gas — a month earlier → October 27 | $4.48 → $4.27 |
Source: Retail & Luxury Fashion edition, Oct 28 — the fuel print in the confidence card.
National Retail Federation forecast for November and December in the US: up 4.2% to $1.013 trillion. Growth does not mean splurging — the edition's wording.
YOUR ARITHMETIC — the two growth readings above are the desk's, as printed. Dial in YOUR OWN holiday-growth figure and see where it would stand between them; the figure you choose is your hypothetical, not the desk's call.
| Series | As printed |
|---|---|
| Last year's growth | 3.1% |
| This year's forecast growth | 4.2% |
Source: Retail & Luxury Fashion edition, Oct 28 — the holiday-sales attention card as printed.
Price as a multiple of recent profits, as the edition prints it.
YOUR ARITHMETIC — the two multiples above are the desk's, as printed. Dial in YOUR OWN multiple and see where it would stand between them; the figure you choose is your hypothetical, not the desk's call.
| Series | As printed |
|---|---|
| Hermès | 29.7 |
| LVMH | 17.7 |
Source: Retail & Luxury Fashion edition, Oct 28 — the valuation passage as printed.
Third-quarter figures and Tuesday's prices, exactly as the edition prints them — units as printed per house: Kering reports in millions, Hermès and LVMH in billions.
| House | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hermès | €4.10 billion | €1.91 billion | €1,276.75 | €133.8 billion | 29.7 |
| LVMH | €18.5 billion | €8.25 billion | €388 | €191.2 billion | 17.7 |
| Kering | €3,345 million | €1,291 million | €179.29 | €22.0 billion | no meaningful multiple |
Source: Retail & Luxury Fashion edition, Oct 28 — “Where It Split” and the valuation passage as printed.
Every row is a value already bound in one of this desk’s three chart payloads, shown exactly as bound — label, value and unit unchanged. Sorting reorders the rows of this table only; it creates, converts and re-bases nothing. Units are shown per row, exactly as bound, and are never silently unified. This desk’s range figures and cross-tables keep their own bound form in their own components and are not flattened into this table.
The October survey — the scoreboard (retail-confidence-scoreboard) — Below 80 on the outlook score is the survey maker's warning sign for recession within a year — the edition's own reading, on the chart's face.
Holiday sales — the forecast (retail-holiday-forecast) — National Retail Federation forecast for November and December in the US: up 4.2% to $1.013 trillion. Growth does not mean splurging — the edition's wording.
What buyers pay for the profits (retail-pe-mults) — Price as a multiple of recent profits, as the edition prints it.
Default view — rows grouped by component of origin, in bound order.
| Unit | Component of origin | Source note | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall confidence | 91.7 | retail-confidence-scoreboard | The October survey — the scoreboard | |
| How today feels | 120.4 | retail-confidence-scoreboard | The October survey — the scoreboard | |
| How tomorrow feels | 72.6 | retail-confidence-scoreboard | The October survey — the scoreboard | |
| Last year's growth | 3.1% | % | retail-holiday-forecast | Holiday sales — the forecast |
| This year's forecast growth | 4.2% | % | retail-holiday-forecast | Holiday sales — the forecast |
| Hermès | 29.7 | retail-pe-mults | What buyers pay for the profits | |
| LVMH | 17.7 | retail-pe-mults | What buyers pay for the profits |
Source: Retail & Luxury Fashion edition, Oct 28 — the October survey table as printed.
Source: Retail & Luxury Fashion edition, Oct 28 — the holiday-sales attention card as printed.
Source: Retail & Luxury Fashion edition, Oct 28 — the valuation passage as printed.