What an earnings base rate is
An earnings base rate is the measured history of how a stock actually moved after its past earnings reports: how many prints were priced, how often the move exceeded a given size, and the median move. It is a count, not a forecast.
Every figure in the corpus is an instance of that count for one company: its own past prints, its own following moves, classified by size and tallied. The glossary below fixes the words the corpus uses, so a term means the same thing on every page where it appears.
The eight terms
Earnings Base Rate
For a given company, the historical frequency and size of its stock's moves after earnings reports — how often it moved, and by how much — measured over its past prints.
Base-Rate Card
A one-page summary of a company's earnings base rate before it reports: prints counted, share that moved more than ±5%, and the median absolute move.
Print (Earnings Print)
A single quarterly earnings release by a company, together with the stock's move that followed it. One print is one observation in a base-rate count.
Hit Rate
The share of a company's past earnings prints after which its stock moved more than a stated threshold (in this dataset, ±5%) within the measured window.
Median Absolute Move
The middle value of a company's absolute stock moves after earnings prints — half its prints moved more than this, half moved less.
Small-Sample Flag
A marker on a base rate computed from few prints, warning that the rate rests on thin evidence and should be read with caution.
Claim-Locked
A figure or sentence that may be published only in its verified form, byte-identical to its checked source; any edit sends it back for re-verification.
ISA-01 Earnings Atlas
The underlying dataset of per-company earnings base rates (524 companies) from which Read Achilles' published base rates are drawn.
The atlas is the source of record for every base rate the corpus publishes. Its certified extract is the open dataset mirrored from this site, and the citation below is the form in which the dataset is credited wherever the data is reused.
Dataset: "Earnings-Move Base Rates — ISA-01 Extract," Read Achilles, data as of 2026-10-23. https://readachilles.com/trends/
The method in one screen
The figures are counted from the prints themselves: every earnings reaction in the set was observed, classified by size, and counted. No options-implied estimates, no analyst consensus, no means — hit rates and medians, each with its print count beside it.
Three quantities carry the whole method: the prints counted, the share of those prints whose move went beyond a stated threshold, and the middle absolute move. Each is defined in the glossary, and each travels with its print count wherever it is published.
The pooled picture
A single company's base rate is a small count. The atlas also supports a pooled view across every company in the set, published as a fixed sentence:
For scale: across 24,203 priced earnings prints in the atlas, 17.12% moved more than ±5% (data as of 2026-10-09).
The pooled sentence is context for scale. It is not a statement about any one company, and it is never combined with a single company's figures.
Reading the cards
The corpus presents each company's base rate as a base-rate card. The reader guide Reading a Base-Rate Card walks one card of record field by field — what each field counts, and what the card does not say.
Independence
Read Achilles is an independent research and education publisher. It is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or acting on behalf of any company, exchange, or institution named in its data, and nothing it publishes is investment advice.