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Hit Rate

Glossary entry — the frequency part of every base rate.

The definition

The share of a company's past earnings prints after which its stock moved more than a stated threshold (in this dataset, ±5%) within the measured window.

How it is computed

From the prints counted for a company, the tally takes those whose following move went beyond the stated threshold in size, and divides by the prints counted. The moves are absolute moves, so a large fall counts exactly as a large rise does. The result is a share of that company's own set, expressed as a percentage.

The threshold travels

Separated from its threshold, a hit rate is an incomplete figure, so on this site the threshold is never separated from the number: every use states the threshold beside the rate, and in this dataset the threshold is ±5%. The corpus does not publish a hit rate in any other form.

On a base-rate card

The share field of the card is a hit rate, read against the prints counted on the same card. Read together, the two fields say how large the underlying set is and how often, inside that set, the move after a print ran beyond the threshold.

What it is not

A hit rate is not a win rate. It counts big moves in both directions and records nothing about gain or loss; a print that fell beyond the threshold raises the rate exactly as a print that rose beyond it.

It is not a chance attached to the next print. It is the measured share inside the prints already counted — a description of the set, in the past tense.

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